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The Pace of Change

The millennium is finally upon us. Predictions are in order. Appraisers like to say they do not _predict_ the future. So I'll call this a _forecast_ depending on many events beyond my control: see my limiting conditions.

Appraisers are fond of quoting that _the only thing that is constant is change._  This certainly a true statement. Does it go far enough in describing the decade ahead? Maybe not.

Various factors have conspired to create constant, wrenching change. These factors revolve around market forces and technological advances. The two tendencies come together and create the kind of "convergences" the media is fond of speaking and that will take place.

What will happen to appraising over the short term in this "brave new world"?  Some thoughts:

1. Those not able to manipulate technology will be left behind. It_s happening now, only many appraisers don_t know it.

2. Appraising at certain levels of the market will become even more of a commodity than it is. The ability to understand expert systems, AVMs, and other technologically driven systems.

3. Information will continually to more readily available at a lower cost to more persons, informed and uninformed.  Appraisers will become less the keepers and gatherers of information and will need to understand the implications of the information and how to analyze it more deeply and faster.

4. The speed of appraising will need to increase. The market and technology demand it. Appraisers who complain about unreasonable turnaround times may have to rethink their business model.

5. Bad appraisers and bad clients won_t disappear. They_ll just get craftier.

6. Appraisal fees will continue to endure pressure. However, the cost of producing appraisals will  go down for those who understand how to achieve new levels of efficiency.

7. Appraisals will receive greater scrutiny and automated scrutiny at that. Appraisers should be prepared to defend their appraisal processes, comparable selections, and conclusions in a variety of arenas.

8. Much appraising will appear in electronic formats. There is great potential particularly for narrative  appraisal writers to create much more effective reports for their clients in a variety of usable formats. Many formats will allow for _expandable_ and _contractable_ levels of information and analysis within a report.

9. While much appraising will become a commodity, and much appraisal work will disappear, specialists in various areas of the profession will still be needed to solve special problems.  The need for litigation-related services will not disappear.

Will appraisers disappear? No. Will their number decrease? Yes. Appraisers must change with the market for their services and use technology as an advantage not an obstacle.

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